“Mobs” won the GetAbstract Book Award for 2008.
My coauthor and I attended the award at Frankfurt, hosted by the gracious and brilliant novelist-entrepreneur Rolf Dobelli:
I then flew to Morocco where I notice gold has been beaten down even further.
Since I am traveling in some rather remote areas, I will not be able to blog for a while…
“Vandeveld believed that Jawad was a war criminal who had been taught by an Al Qaeda-linked group to kill American troops and, if caught, to make up claims he had been tortured and was underage. Vandeveld insisted that he had been providing all evidence to the defense.
But by July, Vandeveld told The Times, he had grown increasingly troubled. He kept finding sources of information and documents that appeared to bolster Frakt’s claims that evidence was being withheld — including some favorable to the defense, such as information suggesting that Jawad was underage, that he had been drugged before the incident and that he had been abused by U.S. forces afterward…….
On Sept. 9, Vandeveld e-mailed Dear to say he had resigned from the Guantanamo military tribunals: “The reaction was the expected outrage and condemnation. I have and will maintain my equanimity and, while scared for me and for my family, know that Christ will watch over me….”More at the LA Times.
Writes Spencer Hahn:
Every week that I get The Economist (it is a free subscription through having tons of frequent flier miles), I know exactly what the editorial, entitled Leaders, will say. This week is no exception.Here’s my favorite passage: “This is a time to put dogma and politics to one side and concentrate on pragmatic answers. That means more government intervention and co-operation in the short term than taxpayers, politicians or indeed free-market newspapers would normally like.”
They have the nerve to call their publication a “free-market”! This reminds me of the lead-up to the American invasion of Iraq, which The Economist enthusiastically supported (“No war should be entered into lightly, or hastily, or on a slender pretext. In this case, however, none of that applies.” Leader, March 13, 2003).
Whatever the circumstances, you can always count on The Economist to toe the establishment line, while broadcasting its free-market “credentials.”
“As a result of the downturn, developed countries are not expected to help 28 countries facing twin shocks of rising food and fuel prices, Zoellick said. “For the poor, the costs of the crisis could be lifelong,” he said.”
Thanks, Mr. Zoellick.
First, developed countries will have to think twice about lecturing any other country on transparency, legality, freedom or democracy. Their moral position is bankrupt, not just their banks.
Second, leaving the poorest people to fend for themselves seems to be in line with one strain of US government policy since WW II – which sees third world populations as a dire threat to world resources.
Third, Mr. Zoellick, do us a favor and leave the world alone. Stop managing world trade in your favor, creating crises, and then “helping”….
Update:
AFP has this update on Zoellick’s remarks, which seems to suggest that aid to third-world countries will be maintained. Aid doesn’t seem to have done India much good. Still, in a crisis caused by foreign governments, it might be necessary, although how is the question.
“Zoellick significantly told the news conference that the International Finance Corp, the private sector lending arm of the IMF, was exploring the possibility of a fund to help recapitalize banks in the developing world.With donor aid programs under pressure due to the financial crisis, the World Bank estimates that up to 100 hundred million people are at risk of falling into poverty because of higher food and energy prices.
“The large surge in food and energy prices — and an associated rise in inflation — present major policy challenges for most countries, further compounded by the uncertain global conditions as the financial crisis unfolds,” an update for the Development Committee said.
For his part, Zoellick stressed that “aid flows must be maintained,” adding that “today’s meeting of ministers was unanimous in that regard.”
Comment:
The private sector lending arm of the IMF…..again, those unnatural and dangerous public-private partnerships. What’s to stop a private investor lending on outrageous terms to foreign central banks? Do developing countries have the resources to monitor the kinds of financial instruments used?
Listen to Rogers calling our “dear leaders” in DC-NY incompetents and crooks.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xIsHD7nwTbU (October 10, 2008)
He’s buying Yen, Franc, and commodities on dips (that’s a broad generalization…as always, do due diligence).
Why should savers who acted prudently bail-out high-rollers, crooks, and spendthrifts who borrowed money, lied and gambled with houses, bonds, debt?
He forecasts that monetary intervention by the IMF and G-7 will result in rampant inflation, currency instability all over the world. Apparently being a professor at Princeton (Bernanke), or chairing the world’s most powerful investment bank (Paulson) does not make you economically savvy.
So says Mr. Rogers. But nice Mr. Rogers is right out of his neighborhood at this point. He knows his finance. He does not know his political history. I don’t buy the Bernanke-Paulson comedy team argument. I think – as I’ve said many times on this blog..in my articles…and in my first book… something a bit more sinister is afoot.
Not wishing to have my links, ideas, and research picked and then not credited in the blogosphere (as well as msm), I will hold my tongue and tend my own garden….
For the week, the S&P 500 crashed -18.20%, Dow -18.15%, the Nasdaq -15.30%, and the Russell 2000 -15.65%
“New York University economist Nouriel Roubini writes tonight that the supposedly civilized world is on the brink of financial collapse and long economic depression unless the government finance officals gathering in Washington this weekend quickly implement a sweeping program of reflation,” notes GATA (the Gold Anti Trust Action Committee)
While I think Rubini’s diagnosis of the real estate glut is right, I don’t believe his program is correct from an Austrian point of view. It would be hugely inflationary, which would be good for precious metals, I think. On the other hand, of course, the G-7 meeting could produce some kind of agreement on gold-backed currency. That would lead to a loss of interest in gold.
The Chicago Board Options Exchange’s volatility index, known as the VIX, and often referred to as the “fear index,” surged above 70 early Friday, a record high.
Hmmm. I was naive. Mark-to-market is being manipulated too:
“Emilio knows, because he learned from the master manipulators at Enron. For an example, he said, check out Section 113 of the bailout bill, titled “Minimization of long-term costs and maximization of benefits for taxpayers.” This is the section that Congress haggled into the bill to ensure a payoff, via warrants, for citizens if mortgages purchased from banks are later sold for a profit. Yet Emilio says bank lobbyists snookered the government by sneaking in an exception under subsection 3a, “Conditions on purchase authority for warrants and debt instruments.” The clause, titled “Exceptions — De Minimis,” states that any debt instruments worth less than $100 million won’t trigger the payback provision.Emilio says that banks will simply issue their debt in tranches of $99 million or less, and avoid allowing the government — and thus taxpayers — to get a piece of the banks’ profits. “It’s a joke,” he scoffed.
Other traders who scanned the bill came to the same conclusion, through their own prisms, agreeing that the bill would provide only an illusion of action while failing to address the key problems facing the financial system: Too many houses will remain on the market; they were bought with too much leverage that is vaporizing in spurts; and those losses have left banks with too little capital from which they can lend.
Even worse, the traders pointed out, the government can make money on the loans only if it pays so little for them that they can be sold at a much higher price. And yet if the government doesn’t pay enough, then the banks won’t receive enough to make a difference in their balance sheets. So here’s how the taxpayers will be cheated, they said: Banks will take advantage of the suspension of mark-to-market accounting by stating that loans originally held at “par,” or the equivalent of the purchase price, and now valued by the market at 20 cents on the dollar, will really be worth 85 cents if held until the loan matures. The banks will then sell the loans to the government at a fake discount of 75 cents on the dollar.”The lobbyists made sure this bill was rammed through so that these rip-offs couldn’t be fixed in committee,” said another trader. “Everyone on the Street knows it solves nothing.”
More by Jon Markman why the fear is real and warranted.
Round up of the news so far:
Yamato Life Insurance Co., a Japanese insurer, filed for court protection from creditors in the nation’s first bankruptcy in the industry in seven years, with debt exceeding assets by 11.5 billion yen ($116 million). It had exposure to US debt through its stock holdings. Japan says its exposure is limited, but I don’t see this as a good sign.
Notice, the first shoe to drop in Europe was also an insurance company, the Belgian Fortis. AIG was, of course, an insurance company and it sold insurance to banks all around the world.
The Tokyo index was down nearly 10%, along with big sell-offs in Asia, including a 9% drop in the Sensex in India and an Australian sell-off so bad it’s being called “Black Friday.” Trading was suspended in Vienna, following a 10% fall at the opening bell; Russian and Indonesian markets have been shut.
European stocks are down, with the UK’s FTSE-100 down 7.3%, German’s DAX down 7.7 %, and France‘s CAC-40 down 7.5 %. The collapse of Yamato Life Insurance pushed the Nikkei 225 to 9.6 %.
Market futures are pointing to more sell-off, with the Dow looking at a fall of over 300 points. Brace yourself for some more pain.
Update: As I write, markets opened 5% down (over 600 points) – anticipating Lehman CDS settlement and further damage to Goldman and Morgan Stanley, following downgrades by Moody’s. GE earnings came in in line with expectations, 10% down year-over-year.
Here are the stats at 10.14 AM
| 8,600.93 | |
| Trade Time: | 10:12AM ET |
| Change: |  21.74 (0.23%) |
| Prev Close: | 9,258.10 |
| Open: | 9,261.69 |
| Day’s Range: | 7888.48 – 8668.39 |
| 52wk Range: | 8,523.27 – 14,280.00 |
Japan has held off joining the near universal rate-cut, which is a good sign, and the yen is up against the dollar as investors are betting on it being healthier than European currencies. Yen is trading around 99 to the buck this morning after falling to around 97 earlier.